Indonesia's Future Stance on Multilateralism

After years of reluctance and skepticism, Indonesia officially applied for membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ("CPTPP") on October 25. Indonesia hopes that membership in the trade bloc will promote exports and foster increased foreign direct investment to help the country achieve its ambitious economic growth targets. 

By attempting to join the CPTPP, outgoing Indonesian president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is taking another step towards multilateralism and an assertive foreign policy that breaks with the protectionism and ambivalence of the past. In November 2022, Indonesia ratified the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement, to which the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ("ASEAN") and several other Asia-Pacific countries are signatory. And in February, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ("OECD") declared its intentions to begin accession negotiations with Indonesia. OECD membership likely will present particularly strong challenges to Indonesia, a country with a history of protectionist economic policy.

However, Jokowi is leaving office in October to make way for his former rival and new ally, Prabowo Subianto. Although Prabowo has indicated his support for Indonesia's CPTPP application, there are many reasons to believe he lacks his predecessor's enthusiasm for multilateral agreements. Made Supriatma of Singapore's ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute said Prabowo sees himself as a modern Sukarno and “a potential leader of the Third World.” This may mean that Prabowo wants Indonesia to play a decisive role in geopolitical disputes, as suggested by his announcement of a peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine War at the 2023 Shangri-La Dialogue of international defense ministers. In addition, David Camroux and Mahrus Harnadi of Sciences Po noted that Prabowo barely mentioned ASEAN during his presidential campaign and argued that he is likely to conduct his foreign policy not through multilateral groupings but through bilateral and “minilateral” agreements; the later referring to a small group of countries – three to eight – addressing well-defined problems. Finally, Prabowo's emphasis on Indonesian self-sufficiency, particularly in agriculture and energy, may lead Indonesia back toward protectionism and away from the free trade demands of multilateral institutions like the OECD.  

With the beginning of the Prabowo administration only a few weeks away, foreign governments and businesses seeking to work with Indonesia will need to pay close attention to how Prabowo conducts foreign policy and implements his vision for economic development.